January 2027 price cap prediction
£2,105a year
up £382 on today's cap
GB average · direct debit · inc VAT
Ofgem cap prediction
What will the cap be?
Our read is for a typical dual fuel household on direct debit from 1 January, £382 (22.2%) a year more than the cap now. Ofgem confirms it on 25 November.
Why is it rising?
Wholesale gas and Elec for winter delivery have risen since August, and the cap passes that through. Network and policy costs move far less.
How does the model do on past caps?
Back-tested: our model run over past data. We started publishing on 16 September 2026, after Ofgem had announced these caps, so each row shows the model's last figure before that announcement.
| Cap | Model (back-tested) | Ofgem | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26 | £1,720 | £1,723 | −£3 |
| Jul 26 | £1,669 | £1,663 | +£6 |
| Apr 26 | £1,515 | £1,477 | +£38 |
Ofgem figures on our typical use basis.
We recompute this every trading day.
See today's predictionQuestions about this figure? hello@energycode.ai